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SMP

Standard Motor ProductsA
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 adjusted net sales rose 6.7% and adjusted EBITDA reached $63.5 million; continued cash conversion and delivery against full-year guidance could lift the shares. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
What can break
Net-debt leverage of 2.5x leaves cash generation important to the downside case. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Momentum
74
Value
64
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $29.00Analysis 2026-10-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $50.00
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d +24.9
Value64 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Net-debt leverage of 2.5x leaves cash generation important to the downside case. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Q3 results could miss the reaffirmed sales-growth or 11%–12% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Vehicle Control's Q2 adjusted sales declined 1.6%, including a significant wire-sets decline; a weak third quarter, margin shortfall, or disruption during the CFO transition would undermine the thesis.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

October 30 third-quarter results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
74
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+24.9
Δ21d
+20.8
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-13.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 74.3 / Value 64.4 / Sentiment 58.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$839.55M
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
22.34M
P/E (TTM)
11.9
P/S (TTM)
0.47
P/FCF (TTM)
44.82
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+18.0%
Gross Margin
+31.5%
Op Margin
+11.0%
Net Debt
$662.06M
Current Ratio
2.00
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data