B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
SMFG
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial GroupDNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Faster-than-expected BoJ tightening, stronger loan growth and contained credit costs drive NIM and ROE expansion, supporting a re-rate toward the analyst high and our bull target. Positive capital actions (buybacks/dividends) would accelerate upside.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
What can break
Adverse JPY moves and ADR translation effects
Momentum
68
Value
51
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.50 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-02-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.95
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d +0.9
Value51 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +1.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adverse JPY moves and ADR translation effects
- • Delayed or weaker-than-expected BoJ tightening reducing NIM upside
- • Prolonged low rates, weaker loan demand or rising corporate credit costs compress NIM and earnings, causing multiple contraction and pushing the ADR toward analyst-low territory; FX translation could deepen downside.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-08
Post-earnings analyst revisions
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-0.2
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-1.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 68.2 / Value 50.6 / Sentiment 51.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$165.69B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
6.33B
P/E (TTM)
14.5
P/S (TTM)
3.57
P/FCF (TTM)
4.91
Rev YoY
+7.1%
EPS YoY
+22.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+22.1%
Net Debt
-$6.46B
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data