B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
SMFG
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial GroupCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Faster-than-expected BoJ tightening, stronger loan growth and contained credit costs drive NIM and ROE expansion, supporting a re-rate toward the analyst high and our bull target. Positive capital actions (buybacks/dividends) would accelerate upside.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
What can break
Adverse JPY moves and ADR translation effects
Momentum
52
Value
52
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.50 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-02-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.99
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -13.1
Value52 · Δ7d +1.6
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +4.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adverse JPY moves and ADR translation effects
- • Delayed or weaker-than-expected BoJ tightening reducing NIM upside
- • Prolonged low rates, weaker loan demand or rising corporate credit costs compress NIM and earnings, causing multiple contraction and pushing the ADR toward analyst-low territory; FX translation could deepen downside.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-08
Post-earnings analyst revisions
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
52
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.1
Δ21d
-24.5
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+2.6
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
-0.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 51.7 / Value 52.3 / Sentiment 51.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$148.79B
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
12.57B
P/E (TTM)
14.5
P/S (TTM)
3.57
P/FCF (TTM)
4.91
Rev YoY
+7.1%
EPS YoY
+22.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+22.1%
Net Debt
-$6.46B
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data