RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

SIGI

Selective Insurance GroupC
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Rate adequacy persists, reserve development is neutral or favorable, and catastrophe activity remains subdued — underwriting margins expand and shares re-rate toward the analyst high.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
Large catastrophe losses or higher reinsurance costs
Momentum
32
Value
57
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $82.29 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $102.86
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d +1.2
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Large catastrophe losses or higher reinsurance costs
  • • Rate erosion from competitive pressure
  • • Material adverse reserve development, elevated catastrophe losses, or reinsurance-cost spikes compress margins and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (est.)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-9.3
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-8.8
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+2.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 31.9 / Value 56.9 / Sentiment 56.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$82.29
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.49B
Beta
0.23
Shares Out
59.57M
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
0.99
P/FCF (TTM)
4.88
Rev YoY
+5.0%
EPS YoY
+54.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+12.7%
Net Debt
$989.25M
Current Ratio
0.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data