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SIGI

Selective Insurance GroupD
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Rate adequacy persists, reserve development is neutral or favorable, and catastrophe activity remains subdued — underwriting margins expand and shares re-rate toward the analyst high.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Large catastrophe losses or higher reinsurance costs
Momentum
42
Value
55
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $82.29 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $100.14
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d -3.0
Value55 · Δ7d -1.5
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -6.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Large catastrophe losses or higher reinsurance costs
  • • Rate erosion from competitive pressure
  • • Material adverse reserve development, elevated catastrophe losses, or reinsurance-cost spikes compress margins and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (est.)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
42
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-2.0
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-1.9
Sentiment
46
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.6
Δ21d
-20.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 41.9 / Value 55.5 / Sentiment 46.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$82.29
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.75B
Beta
0.23
Shares Out
59.57M
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
0.99
P/FCF (TTM)
4.88
Rev YoY
+5.0%
EPS YoY
+54.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+12.7%
Net Debt
$989.25M
Current Ratio
0.39
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data