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ShopifyD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q1 showed broad-based growth across geographies, merchant sizes, and channels, with $100.7 billion of GMV, 34% revenue growth, and a 15% free-cash-flow margin. The AI-enabled commerce platform and distribution expansion support a constructive medium-term case.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
AI and commerce competition may pressure merchant acquisition, retention, or pricing.
Momentum
93
Value
47
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $125.00 · Bull $145.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $176.96
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d +3.8
Value47 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment26 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI and commerce competition may pressure merchant acquisition, retention, or pricing.
  • • DoorDash integration adoption and financial contribution are not yet quantified.
  • • The upcoming print is the key validation point.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 2026 earnings on August 5

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+16.3
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-13.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 92.5 / Value 47.4 / Sentiment 26.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$217.21B
Beta
2.84
Shares Out
1.29B
P/E (TTM)
122.4
P/S (TTM)
20.23
P/FCF (TTM)
113.70
Rev YoY
+33.7%
EPS YoY
+67.2%
Gross Margin
+47.6%
Op Margin
+17.8%
Net Debt
-$5.59B
Current Ratio
5.35
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data