B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$29.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SFD
Smithfield FoodsANasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed record adjusted operating profit, stronger net income, improved consolidated margin, and healthy liquidity. Branded-category share gains and vertical integration could support earnings resilience if macro pressure moderates.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.
What can break
FY2026 adjusted operating-profit guidance was reduced to $1.225-$1.375 billion from $1.325-$1.475 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
Momentum
16
Value
67
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.50 · Bull $29.40 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.00
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +1.1
Value67 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +6.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2026 adjusted operating-profit guidance was reduced to $1.225-$1.375 billion from $1.325-$1.475 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
- • Fresh Pork and Hog Production profitability remains exposed to demand, commodity, and input-cost volatility; both FY2026 guidance ranges were lowered. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
- • The outlook reduction is the clearest forward signal: sales moved to roughly flat from low-single-digit growth, while total and segment profit ranges were lowered because of cautious consumers and higher input costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Q2 FY2026 results delivered a mixed earnings reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-4.0
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+9.6
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
+9.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 16.1 / Value 66.9 / Sentiment 77.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$22.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.9B
Beta
-
Shares Out
393.11M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
9.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
25.76
Rev YoY
-3.8%
EPS YoY
+25.8%
Gross Margin
+13.4%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$857M
Current Ratio
2.56
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data