B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SFD
Smithfield FoodsBNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Packaged Meats branded-share and distribution gains could sustain reaffirmed FY2026 segment guidance if pork spreads recover. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-08]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
What can break
Fresh Pork industry spread compression could exceed the loss range in the September update. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-08]
Momentum
21
Value
69
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $13.50Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.81
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +1.9
Value69 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fresh Pork industry spread compression could exceed the loss range in the September update. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-08]
- • Lower hog prices could further reduce Hog Production profitability. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-08]
- • Fresh Pork processing losses and weaker Hog Production profit could persist, prompting lower full-year guidance despite Packaged Meats resilience.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27 · BMO
Q3 results and revised full-year outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
+8.6
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-6.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 20.9 / Value 69.0 / Sentiment 51.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.34B
Beta
-
Shares Out
393.11M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
7.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.23
Rev YoY
-3.8%
EPS YoY
+25.8%
Gross Margin
+13.4%
Op Margin
+8.6%
Net Debt
$857M
Current Ratio
2.56
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data