B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SBS
Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo SABESPBNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The cleanest bullish read is that 1Q26 showed tariff phase-in, new connections, and cost control working together: adjusted net sanitation revenue rose 10.9%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 63%, and capex still increased 31% without breaking operating discipline. The January financing package also reduces near-term funding anxiety around the universalization buildout.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
What can break
Large funded capex and EMAE tender-offer/integration steps add execution and capital-allocation risk even if the strategic logic is defensible. [#6K-BlueBonds-2026-01-27] [#6K-EMAE-2026-02-02]
Momentum
21
Value
70
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.10 · Bull $6.90 · Bear $5.10Analysis 2026-05-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.87
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +3.1
Value70 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Large funded capex and EMAE tender-offer/integration steps add execution and capital-allocation risk even if the strategic logic is defensible. [#6K-BlueBonds-2026-01-27] [#6K-EMAE-2026-02-02]
- • Management said a temporary SAP cutover reduced March billing by two days, so some near-term revenue timing noise still needs to reverse in subsequent months. [#PR-1Q26-2026-05-07]
- • The cautious read is that this is still mostly an execution story: net financial result worsened sharply, mix shifted toward subsidized customers, water production fell on milder weather and operating rules, and the company now carries added integration complexity from EMAE.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
1Q26 billing recovery and efficiency follow-through
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+11.8
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.5
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-15.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 21.1 / Value 70.0 / Sentiment 64.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.13B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
3.51B
P/E (TTM)
12.4
P/S (TTM)
2.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
15.20
Rev YoY
+27.7%
EPS YoY
-23.9%
Gross Margin
+35.4%
Op Margin
+31.0%
Net Debt
$5.04B
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data