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SBS

Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo SABESPA
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Tariff phase-in and new connections could offset softer consumption and mix while universalization delivery supports longer-term earnings. Sabesp reported 2Q26 adjusted sanitation revenue growth of 6.7%, despite weaker adjusted profits.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Sabesp attributed 2Q26 cost pressure to customer-service investment and treatment-supply inflation; adjusted EBITDA declined 3.2% year over year. [#SEC-6K-2026-08-12] 2Q26 filing
Momentum
83
Value
70
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.90 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $3.70Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.97
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -16.8
Value70 · Δ7d +3.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +11.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Sabesp attributed 2Q26 cost pressure to customer-service investment and treatment-supply inflation; adjusted EBITDA declined 3.2% year over year. [#SEC-6K-2026-08-12] 2Q26 filing
  • • September universalization progress was explicitly subject to regulatory and verifier validation. [#IR-UNIVERSALIZATION-2026-09] IR dashboard
  • • Customer-service spending, treatment-input inflation and higher debt costs could keep earnings below the prior-year run rate even as capital spending rises.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

November 5 third-quarter results test the cost trajectory

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.8
Δ21d
-11.2
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+4.4
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.3
Δ21d
+8.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 83.5 / Value 69.7 / Sentiment 59.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$16.52B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
3.52B
P/E (TTM)
12.4
P/S (TTM)
2.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
15.52
Rev YoY
+27.7%
EPS YoY
-23.9%
Gross Margin
+35.4%
Op Margin
+31.0%
Net Debt
$5.04B
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data