B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SBH
Sally BeautyANYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sally U.S. and Canada comparable-sales growth, expanding gross margin, and Q3 free cash flow of $62 million could support earnings if gains spread across the business.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Beauty Systems Group sales and comparable-sales declines could keep consolidated growth flat. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
78
Value
69
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.50 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $12.50Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -4.6
Value69 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Beauty Systems Group sales and comparable-sales declines could keep consolidated growth flat. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
- • Fiscal 2026 results could miss the narrowed sales or earnings ranges despite Q3 margin improvement. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
- • Flat consolidated Q3 comparable sales and Beauty Systems Group weakness leave limited evidence of a broad demand inflection, despite stronger Sally results.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Fiscal 2026 results test narrowed outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-11.4
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-9.7
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 77.9 / Value 68.5 / Sentiment 50.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.63B
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
93.62M
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM)
8.49
Rev YoY
+0.2%
EPS YoY
+24.7%
Gross Margin
+52.1%
Op Margin
+8.5%
Net Debt
$1.41B
Current Ratio
2.37
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data