B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SBH
Sally BeautyBNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q3 delivered stronger EPS, gross margin, cash flow, debt reduction, and buybacks, while Sally U.S. and Canada comps remained positive.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.7.
What can break
Beauty Systems Group weakness and unfavorable channel mix
Momentum
88
Value
69
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.00 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $12.50Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -2.2
Value69 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +7.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Beauty Systems Group weakness and unfavorable channel mix
- • Final-quarter demand or comparable-sales deterioration
- • Flat consolidated comps, a 2.1% Beauty Systems Group comp decline, and guidance that was narrowed rather than raised indicate limited forward acceleration.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q3 earnings showed EPS and cash-flow strength while FY26 guidance narrowed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
+9.3
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.7
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 87.6 / Value 69.3 / Sentiment 55.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.52B
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
93.62M
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
0.40
P/FCF (TTM)
8.49
Rev YoY
+0.2%
EPS YoY
+24.7%
Gross Margin
+52.1%
Op Margin
+8.5%
Net Debt
$1.41B
Current Ratio
2.37
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data