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SAIL

SailPointB
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed durable recurring momentum: ARR grew 25%, SaaS ARR grew 36%, RPO accelerated 30%, adjusted EPS exceeded the pre-print consensus, and management reiterated FY27 and FY29 objectives. AI-driven adoption and higher spend among adopters provide a potential growth layer beyond cloud migration.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
CEO and CFO open-market sales reported in July are a monitoring consideration, although they do not establish any deterioration in operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-09]
Momentum
79
Value
46
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $20.50 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $13.50Analysis 2026-09-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $21.29
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -6.1
Value46 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CEO and CFO open-market sales reported in July are a monitoring consideration, although they do not establish any deterioration in operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-09]
  • • GAAP operating loss widened to $59 million, contrasting with the 20% adjusted operating margin and highlighting substantial excluded expenses.
  • • The stock fell despite the earnings beat, indicating demanding expectations or concern about the outlook.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Q3 execution against decelerating growth guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-16.0
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-3.7
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 79.3 / Value 45.7 / Sentiment 75.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.54B
Beta
-
Shares Out
567.18M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-34.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
56.15
Rev YoY
+21.6%
EPS YoY
-65.1%
Gross Margin
+57.9%
Op Margin
-17.9%
Net Debt
-$343.31M
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data