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SAIL

SailPointC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that the June 9 earnings release showed real operating strength—22% revenue growth, 26% ARR growth, positive free cash flow, and raised FY27 targets—while newer agentic and non-human identity products plus modernization tooling extend the runway beyond the core SaaS migration cycle.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Entro integration and broader agentic-security monetization may take longer than investors expect.
Momentum
81
Value
46
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-06-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $20.48
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -4.3
Value46 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +8.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Entro integration and broader agentic-security monetization may take longer than investors expect.
  • • Growth may decelerate as the legacy-to-SaaS migration tailwind matures.
  • • The bear case is that sell-side skepticism surfaced quickly after earnings: BofA downgraded the stock on June 12 over growth durability, platform-competition risk, and sponsor-overhang concerns, arguing the current growth engine may fade as legacy migrations mature.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-31

Q1 FY27 beat-and-raise has to hold against deceleration concerns

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-9.5
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-3.6
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.6
Δ21d
+4.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 80.9 / Value 45.7 / Sentiment 56.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
35%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.54B
Beta
-
Shares Out
567.18M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-34.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
56.15
Rev YoY
+21.6%
EPS YoY
-65.1%
Gross Margin
+57.9%
Op Margin
-17.9%
Net Debt
-$343.31M
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data