B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SAIL
SailPointDNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 supplied strong operating evidence: ARR grew 25%, SaaS ARR grew 36%, AI-driven offerings exceeded $70 million of ARR, and RPO accelerated 30%. Post-print analyst action was broadly constructive, including target increases to $21-$22 from BMO, Roth, Evercore, Scotiabank, and Barclays, supporting the view that AI traction and cloud mix can outweigh near-term deceleration.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
AI-driven ARR must scale from more than $70 million to at least $800 million by FY29; launch timing, conversion, competition, or customer-governance constraints could disrupt that path.
Momentum
66
Value
45
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $19.50 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-09-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $22.36
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d +4.0
Value45 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -15.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AI-driven ARR must scale from more than $70 million to at least $800 million by FY29; launch timing, conversion, competition, or customer-governance constraints could disrupt that path.
- • FY27 ARR growth guidance of 22%-23% implies deceleration from Q2's 25%, increasing sensitivity to bookings or renewal softness.
- • The print was not uniformly strong: reported revenue was slightly below cited consensus estimates, FY27 ARR growth guidance implies deceleration to 22%-23%, and Q3 adjusted operating margin guidance of 17.4%-17.9% is below Q2's roughly 20%.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Planned Q3 Agentic Suites release can convert early demand into recurring revenue
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
66
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-3.8
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.9
Δ21d
-13.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 66.2 / Value 45.2 / Sentiment 44.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$19.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$12.44B
Beta
-
Shares Out
570.91M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-40.4
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
65.81
Rev YoY
+21.6%
EPS YoY
-65.1%
Gross Margin
+57.9%
Op Margin
-17.9%
Net Debt
-$343.31M
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data