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SAFT

Safety Insurance GroupD
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull: improved underwriting margins and benign catastrophe activity drive earnings above consensus and multiple expansion; recent analyst raises support upside potential.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
Major catastrophe or severe-weather losses
Momentum
87
Value
53
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $76.35 · Bull $84.25 · Bear $66.19Analysis 2026-03-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +1.8
Value53 · Δ7d -9.7
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Major catastrophe or severe-weather losses
  • • Regulatory changes or rising reinsurance costs
  • • Bear: adverse reserve development, large catastrophe losses, or dividend/earnings disappointments compress earnings and force multiple contraction, pushing shares toward the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-04

Q1 2026 results & dividend timing

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-8.9
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.7
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
44
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+0.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 87.3 / Value 53.1 / Sentiment 43.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$84.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$76.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$66.19
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.52B
Beta
0.22
Shares Out
14.68M
P/E (TTM)
12.8
P/S (TTM)
0.92
P/FCF (TTM)
9.60
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+21.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+6.5%
Net Debt
-$12.04M
Current Ratio
0.65
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data