B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SAFE
SafeholdCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue of $114.6 million and EPS of $0.42 accompanied higher origination volume and added investment capacity. If commitments fund and new leases earn attractive returns, the October 20 anchor price of $11.24 could understate durable income growth.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Estimated unrealized capital appreciation is subject to stated limitations and is not realized proceeds. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
13
Value
61
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.25 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.78
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d +2.5
Value61 · Δ7d -
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -35.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Estimated unrealized capital appreciation is subject to stated limitations and is not realized proceeds. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • Star Holdings' $115 million outstanding term loan and SAFE-share-secured margin facility warrant separate credit and share-overhang monitoring. [#8-K-2026-10-02]
- • Conditional commitments may not fund, joint-venture capacity may not translate into attractive retained economics, and the Star loan remains a $115 million counterparty exposure despite its maturity extension.
Catalyst clock
2027-01-19
Star Holdings loan and margin-facility developments
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
13
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+2.7
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-35.0
Δ21d
-35.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.1 / Value 60.6 / Sentiment 55.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$795.27M
Beta
1.85
Shares Out
70.82M
P/E (TTM)
8.8
P/S (TTM)
2.63
P/FCF (TTM)
150.34
Rev YoY
+21.1%
EPS YoY
+8.2%
Gross Margin
+90.6%
Op Margin
+75.8%
Net Debt
$4.62B
Current Ratio
451.35
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data