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RYAAY

RyanairB
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Traffic growth and the September 94% load factor support volume resilience; roughly 80% FY27 fuel hedging at about $67 per barrel and a strong net-cash position may cushion volatility. A better H1 fare outcome would strengthen the case.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
Closer-in booking patterns and lower Q1 fares leave winter yield and FY27 profit visibility weak; the company had not provided FY27 profit guidance in its Q1 release. [#IR-Q1-FY27-2026-07-20] Q1 results.
Momentum
47
Value
65
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $53.00 · Bull $64.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-10-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $64.25
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +4.9
Value65 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Closer-in booking patterns and lower Q1 fares leave winter yield and FY27 profit visibility weak; the company had not provided FY27 profit guidance in its Q1 release. [#IR-Q1-FY27-2026-07-20] Q1 results.
  • • Higher prices on the unhedged share of jet fuel, alongside crew pay, maintenance and environmental costs, could overwhelm traffic growth. [#IR-Q1-FY27-2026-07-20] Q1 results.
  • • Q1 FY27 profit after tax fell 34% to €538 million despite 6% passenger growth: fares fell 6%, while the unhedged fuel portion became much more expensive.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02

H1 FY27 fare and profit update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+6.1
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-12.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 46.8 / Value 65.3 / Sentiment 55.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$64.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$26.44B
Beta
1.20
Shares Out
517.93M
P/E (TTM)
13.6
P/S (TTM)
2.09
P/FCF (TTM)
15.87
Rev YoY
+3.7%
EPS YoY
-31.4%
Gross Margin
+18.6%
Op Margin
+13.6%
Net Debt
-$2.4B
Current Ratio
0.79
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data