B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet BurgersFNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The First Choice plan is showing some operational traction: 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose to $69.7 million from $45.6 million, restaurant-level margin improved to 12.7%, and management said December traffic outperformed the casual-dining industry for the first time since Q3 2024. If that carries into positive 2026 comps, the equity can rebound sharply from a distressed base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Consumer softness, commodity inflation, tariffs, or labor cost pressure could erase the modest 2026 guidance cushion.
Momentum
98
Value
46
Sentiment
1
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.80 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $1.80Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.33
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +0.6
Value46 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment1 · Δ7d +3.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer softness, commodity inflation, tariffs, or labor cost pressure could erase the modest 2026 guidance cushion.
- • Guest traffic may remain negative even if pricing and cost controls support margins.
- • Revenue still fell in 2025, full-year traffic was down 3.8%, and the company still had about $170.2 million of borrowings with only roughly $56.9 million of liquidity at year-end.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-14
FY2026 guide creates a near-term proof point on traffic and EBITDA durability
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
1
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 98.0 / Value 45.8 / Sentiment 1.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$200.19M
Beta
2.32
Shares Out
18.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.1
P/S (TTM)
0.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-82.22
Rev YoY
-2.1%
EPS YoY
-91.7%
Gross Margin
+10.4%
Op Margin
+1.0%
Net Debt
$491.11M
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data