B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RPD
Rapid7CNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Rapid7 retains substantial liquidity, generated $31.9 million of Q2 free cash flow, and is redirecting investment toward core security operations and AI capabilities. Product, channel, and public-sector initiatives could support stabilization if execution improves.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.6.
What can break
ARR and revenue contraction may persist.
Momentum
76
Value
63
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.80 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $7.80Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.96
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -20.3
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -14.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • ARR and revenue contraction may persist.
- • Analyst coverage, revision data, and direct operating peers are limited.
- • Revenue and ARR both declined year over year, while management is undertaking a strategic focus and operating-model reset.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-10
Q2 results confirm a contractionary operating reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-20.3
Δ21d
-18.3
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.6
Δ21d
-5.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 75.7 / Value 62.5 / Sentiment 54.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$833.75M
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
67.4M
P/E (TTM)
48.7
P/S (TTM)
1.07
P/FCF (TTM)
5.87
Rev YoY
-1.5%
EPS YoY
-30.6%
Gross Margin
+68.4%
Op Margin
+1.5%
Net Debt
$493.7M
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data