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Rapid7F
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Rapid7 retains substantial liquidity, generated $31.9 million of Q2 free cash flow, and is redirecting investment toward core security operations and AI capabilities. Product, channel, and public-sector initiatives could support stabilization if execution improves.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
ARR and revenue contraction may persist.
Momentum
86
Value
60
Sentiment
7
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.80 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $7.80Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $12.06
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -7.4
Value60 · Δ7d -1.6
Sentiment7 · Δ7d -13.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ARR and revenue contraction may persist.
  • • Analyst coverage, revision data, and direct operating peers are limited.
  • • Revenue and ARR both declined year over year, while management is undertaking a strategic focus and operating-model reset.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-10

Q2 results confirm a contractionary operating reset

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
86
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-7.4
Δ21d
-8.3
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
-2.1
Sentiment
7
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.5
Δ21d
-21.6
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 86.5 / Value 60.1 / Sentiment 7.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.21B
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
67.4M
P/E (TTM)
48.7
P/S (TTM)
1.07
P/FCF (TTM)
5.87
Rev YoY
-1.5%
EPS YoY
-30.6%
Gross Margin
+68.4%
Op Margin
+1.5%
Net Debt
$493.7M
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data