B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RLI
RLIBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
RLI's SEC-filed Q2 results showed continued premium growth, strong investment income, profitability, book-value growth, and substantial shareholder returns. Stored Zacks context describes an earnings and revenue beat, but independent post-print analyst revision data is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.7.
What can break
Casualty combined ratio worsened to 99.3 from 96.5 year over year.
Momentum
74
Value
54
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $64.00 · Bull $73.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $60.50
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d -0.1
Value54 · Δ7d -8.7
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +10.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Casualty combined ratio worsened to 99.3 from 96.5 year over year.
- • Catastrophe losses, competitive pricing, interest-rate movements, and equity-market volatility could affect results.
- • Underwriting income declined year over year, the total combined ratio deteriorated, and casualty underwriting weakened materially.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Capital return and repurchase capacity
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.7
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.7
Δ21d
+8.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 74.4 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 65.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$64.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.73B
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
91.77M
P/E (TTM)
16.3
P/S (TTM)
3.09
P/FCF (TTM)
16.79
Rev YoY
+18.7%
EPS YoY
+35.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.7%
Net Debt
$63.19M
Current Ratio
0.31
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data