B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RLAY
Relay TherapeuticsFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that May 5 preserved the constructive 2026 setup: cash runway now reaches into 2029, the May vascular-anomalies readout is near, ReDiscover-2 remains active, and management advanced the frontline triplet plan toward an early-2027 Phase 3 start.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Checked sources did not surface a clear wave of post-earnings analyst target revisions, leaving external validation of the May 5 update limited.
Momentum
74
Value
41
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $17.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.58
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d +8.1
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment26 · Δ7d -7.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Checked sources did not surface a clear wave of post-earnings analyst target revisions, leaving external validation of the May 5 update limited.
- • Clinical-stage concentration remains high, with zovegalisib still carrying most of the equity story.
- • The bear case is that little in the Q1 print fundamentally de-risked the core binary questions.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-19
Q1 update extended cash runway and kept the zovegalisib calendar active
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
74
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+5.8
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
-0.8
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 74.3 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 25.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.98B
Beta
1.60
Shares Out
219.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-11.3
P/S (TTM)
163.03
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-15.54
Rev YoY
-48.3%
EPS YoY
+0.4%
Gross Margin
+78.6%
Op Margin
-3914.4%
Net Debt
-$522.06M
Current Ratio
18.27
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data