RKT

Rocket CompaniesC

NYSE / Financial Services

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$19.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$16.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$11.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-08-08

AI commentary

Primary company evidence confirms strong Q2 operating results and record market-share commentary. Secondary post-print coverage was mixed, including a report that the stock slipped despite profit reaching a four-year high. The packet anchor is $13.72 on 2026-08-07, but it does not provide a complete post-earnings return series. Analyst revision evidence remains unavailable, and social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data were not supplied; confidence is therefore capped.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-08-06eventQ2 results showed record share gains and four-year profitability peakMedium impact

Rocket reported Q2'26 total revenue of $2.78B, adjusted net income of $441M, and adjusted EBITDA of $766M versus $75M and $172M respectively a year earlier. Management also reported record purchase and refinance market share. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]

2026-09-30catalystChannel mix and gain-on-sale margin follow-throughMedium impact

Q2 total gain-on-sale margin was 2.48%; Direct to Consumer was 4.13%, while Rocket Pro was 0.69% amid Compass-related investment. Sustained mix pressure or weaker housing demand could offset volume and share gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]

2026-12-31catalystServicing-platform integration and recapture monetizationHigh impact

All servicing clients were migrated to one platform, legacy Mr. Cooper recapture rates reached another record, and Redfin mortgage leads doubled year over year. Execution could improve recapture, conversion, and operating leverage, but forward contribution remains unproven. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology