B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RKLB
Rocket LabANasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record revenue, rapidly expanding backlog, defense awards, contracted launch growth, and continued Neutron progress support a credible multi-year growth narrative. Strategic vertical integration through satellite systems, acquisitions, and the planned Iridium transaction could expand Rocket Lab's addressable market.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Backlog conversion depends on execution across large defense, satellite, and launch programs, with acquisitions adding integration risk.
Momentum
15
Value
34
Sentiment
96
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $110.00 · Bear $58.00Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $113.76
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d -4.9
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment96 · Δ7d -0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog conversion depends on execution across large defense, satellite, and launch programs, with acquisitions adding integration risk.
- • CEO open-market sales create a supply and sentiment overhang but should not be interpreted as operating guidance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-08]
- • The immediate post-earnings setup is less clean: Q3 margin guidance steps down materially while adjusted EBITDA remains negative, and the investment case is increasingly dependent on flawless Neutron execution, backlog conversion, acquisition integration, and financing discipline.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-10
Record Q2 execution and Q3 revenue ramp
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.9
Δ21d
+1.1
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
96
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+27.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 14.9 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 95.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$49.11B
Beta
2.17
Shares Out
598.35M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-219.8
P/S (TTM)
75.27
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-129.57
Rev YoY
+62.0%
EPS YoY
-39.3%
Gross Margin
+34.1%
Op Margin
-29.1%
Net Debt
-$751.49M
Current Ratio
5.48
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data