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RITM

Rithm CapitalB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 distribution beat, maintained dividend, $61 billion AUM base, strong inflows, and asset-management revenue growth support a constructive medium-term view. The $9.87 price is below reported book value of $12.33, providing valuation support if book value and distributions remain durable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
A director reported open-market sales in May 2026; this is a sentiment signal only, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-22]
Momentum
52
Value
60
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.70 · Bull $12.30 · Bear $8.80Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.15
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -0.9
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director reported open-market sales in May 2026; this is a sentiment signal only, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-22]
  • • GAAP net income is materially lower than distributable earnings and may remain volatile because of MSR mark-to-market and other non-operating items. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
  • • Revenue reportedly missed expectations, GAAP earnings fell sequentially, and MSR-related valuation effects create reported earnings noise.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Q2 earnings distribution beat with dividend maintained

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-17.1
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+5.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 52.0 / Value 60.1 / Sentiment 68.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.73B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
558.41M
P/E (TTM)
7.7
P/S (TTM)
1.21
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.13
Rev YoY
+26.7%
EPS YoY
-93.3%
Gross Margin
+87.9%
Op Margin
+42.3%
Net Debt
$36.7B
Current Ratio
0.66
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data