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RITM

Rithm CapitalB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 GAAP EPS rose from $0.04 to $0.38 quarter over quarter, the $0.25 dividend was covered by $0.55 of earnings available for distribution, and Genesis and Newrez showed operating strength. The packet's positive deterministic prior supports a cautiously positive update, not an assumption that Q3 performance will recur.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
Asset-management AUM was flat quarter over quarter despite gross inflows; reported AUM includes assets that do not generate fees and uses a revised methodology. Rithm Q3 release
Momentum
38
Value
60
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.80
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d +12.5
Value60 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -11.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Asset-management AUM was flat quarter over quarter despite gross inflows; reported AUM includes assets that do not generate fees and uses a revised methodology. Rithm Q3 release
  • • Mortgage-servicing-rights marks, hedges, credit losses and commercial-property values can make GAAP earnings and book value volatile. Rithm Q3 release
  • • Earnings available for distribution declined from $0.60 in Q2 to $0.55 in Q3, asset-management revenue fell despite gross inflows, and Newrez production contracted.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-06

Q3 earnings follow-through

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.5
Δ21d
-4.6
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-9.3
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.9
Δ21d
-15.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 38.1 / Value 60.1 / Sentiment 61.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.24B
Beta
1.21
Shares Out
558.41M
P/E (TTM)
7.7
P/S (TTM)
1.21
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.95
Rev YoY
+26.7%
EPS YoY
-93.3%
Gross Margin
+87.9%
Op Margin
+42.3%
Net Debt
$36.7B
Current Ratio
0.66
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data