B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RICK
RCI HospitalityCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best current bull argument is that nightclub trends look materially firmer than Bombshells, recent acquisitions/openings are offsetting divestitures, and management now has an early proof point that the Bombshells reset can lift sales at specific stores. Post-year-end buybacks also help per-share support.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Bombshells remains the main operating weak spot after a 29.2% revenue decline in FY25 and a 13.6% same-store sales decline, so any turnaround could take longer than management hopes. [#10-K-2026-03-19]
Momentum
85
Value
66
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $98.00
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -
Value66 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bombshells remains the main operating weak spot after a 29.2% revenue decline in FY25 and a 13.6% same-store sales decline, so any turnaround could take longer than management hopes. [#10-K-2026-03-19]
- • Leverage and expensive financing remain relevant constraints, including unsecured notes carrying 12% interest and other covenant-bound debt disclosed in the 10-K. [#10-K-2026-03-19]
- • The bear case is that Bombshells remains a real drag, filing delays created Nasdaq compliance risk, and the cyber incident adds legal and remediation uncertainty on top of already mixed operating momentum.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
2Q26 sales update showed nightclub resilience but Bombshells still lagged
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+6.8
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 84.5 / Value 65.8 / Sentiment 45.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$237.67M
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
7.64M
P/E (TTM)
12.7
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM)
5.95
Rev YoY
+3.9%
EPS YoY
+79.8%
Gross Margin
+50.9%
Op Margin
+13.7%
Net Debt
$232.71M
Current Ratio
0.56
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data