B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
REPL
Replimune GroupFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
A recovery case depends on Replimune producing a credible FDA path for RP1 after the second CRL. The packet still shows a $13.00 median target, but analyst count and post-CRL revision detail are unavailable, so that target should not be treated as fresh confirmation.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Low-coverage small-cap biotech with no fresh analyst revisions in the packet; valuation anchors may be stale after the regulatory setback.
Momentum
99
Value
41
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.00 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $2.00Analysis 2026-05-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $19.50
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d -0.4
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Low-coverage small-cap biotech with no fresh analyst revisions in the packet; valuation anchors may be stale after the regulatory setback.
- • Peer set is broad same-sector market-cap context rather than direct operating comparables, limiting relative-valuation confidence.
- • A second CRL materially lowers near-term approval visibility, extends regulatory delay risk, and leaves the name exposed to further downside if FDA requirements are onerous, unclear, or require additional clinical work.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-10
FDA issues second Complete Response Letter for RP1 BLA
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.5
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 99.2 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.38B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
84.03M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.8
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.33
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-24.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$157.3M
Current Ratio
5.23
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data