B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RELY
Remitly GlobalCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary company materials support a constructive post-earnings read: record Q1 revenue, materially higher profitability, raised full-year outlook, strong cash generation, and active buyback execution all argue that Remitly's margin and scale story is improving [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]. However, the available packet does not provide broad post-print analyst revision evidence, so the bull case still depends on follow-through in estimates and another clean operating update.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.3.
What can break
Competition and pricing pressure in cross-border money movement could compress transaction economics even if send volume stays healthy [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Momentum
78
Value
46
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $17.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $32.15
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -7.3
Value46 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +14.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Competition and pricing pressure in cross-border money movement could compress transaction economics even if send volume stays healthy [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • Quarterly results are seasonal and corridor mix can distort the relationship between active customers, send volume, and monetization, which can make strong Q1 trends less linear than they appear [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
- • This is still not a full-conviction upgrade because revision breadth remains thin in the available evidence, and part of the Q1 margin story needs to be proven through additional quarters rather than a single beat.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Repurchase execution and cleaner balance-sheet usage can support downside
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
-5.7
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.3
Δ21d
+4.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 77.6 / Value 45.8 / Sentiment 65.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.57B
Beta
0.11
Shares Out
211.68M
P/E (TTM)
139.9
P/S (TTM)
1.77
P/FCF (TTM)
14.17
Rev YoY
+20.2%
EPS YoY
+3025.8%
Gross Margin
+60.0%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
-$351.19M
Current Ratio
3.18
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data