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REFI

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate FinanceC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
REFI offers a high-yielding commercial mortgage portfolio, reported meaningful Q2 originations, and could benefit from merger progress and stronger cannabis-borrower cash flows. The reported $0.47 regular dividend remains a potential support, although current distributable earnings coverage is imperfect [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
Book value per share declined to $14.15 and debt/equity increased to 46.6% in Q2 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
Momentum
44
Value
63
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $12.20 · Bear $8.60Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.50
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +5.3
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Book value per share declined to $14.15 and debt/equity increased to 46.6% in Q2 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11].
  • • Credit quality, non-accruals, and reserve trends require continued monitoring; the available filing excerpt does not fully resolve forward credit risk.
  • • Q2 distributable earnings fell year over year, diluted distributable earnings of $0.43 per share were below the $0.47 dividend, book value declined to $14.15, and management acknowledged deployment-timing pressure.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-11

Q2 2026 results show strong originations but earnings pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+19.1
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-9.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 43.7 / Value 62.9 / Sentiment 59.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$263.13M
Beta
0.26
Shares Out
25.62M
P/E (TTM)
7.3
P/S (TTM)
4.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-16.11
Rev YoY
-7.8%
EPS YoY
-16.7%
Gross Margin
+87.3%
Op Margin
+60.3%
Net Debt
$83.49M
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data