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REFI

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate FinanceB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 loan principal grew to $453.1 million, and later deployment could improve earnings coverage. The declared $0.47 third-quarter dividend and reported August executive-chairman and co-CEO open-market purchases provide limited support, but neither proves future coverage.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Cannabis-operator borrower performance, credit provisions and repayment-to-deployment timing could pressure earnings and book value. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
Momentum
33
Value
63
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-10-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.25
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -9.3
Value63 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cannabis-operator borrower performance, credit provisions and repayment-to-deployment timing could pressure earnings and book value. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
  • • The $0.47 regular dividend exceeded Q2 diluted distributable earnings of $0.43 per share; a September declaration does not establish renewed coverage. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-16]
  • • Q2 diluted distributable earnings did not cover the regular dividend; book value per share declined to $14.15 from $14.39 in Q1, and debt/equity rose to 46.6% from 38.4%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-30

Dividend coverage and loan deployment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
33
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.3
Δ21d
-38.8
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-9.8
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-14.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 33.5 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 53.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$240.07M
Beta
0.26
Shares Out
25.62M
P/E (TTM)
7.3
P/S (TTM)
4.19
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-14.70
Rev YoY
-7.8%
EPS YoY
-16.7%
Gross Margin
+87.3%
Op Margin
+60.3%
Net Debt
$83.49M
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data