B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RDWR
RadwareCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary-source bull case is that Q1 confirmed double-digit revenue growth, 23% cloud ARR growth, strong North America execution, and healthy operating cash flow, while third-party transcript coverage framed EPS and revenue as ahead of consensus. That supports the view that Radware is gaining in cloud and API security, not only legacy appliance demand.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
EMEA revenue declined 11% year over year in Q1 2026 even as Americas revenue grew 40%.
Momentum
27
Value
52
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.50
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d -16.2
Value52 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • EMEA revenue declined 11% year over year in Q1 2026 even as Americas revenue grew 40%.
- • Management said Israeli shekel appreciation had an adverse impact on Q1 expenses.
- • The bear case is that the earnings release still showed weak EMEA performance, FX pressure on expenses, lower GAAP EPS from continuing operations, a SkyHawk discontinued-operations transition that complicates comparability, and no verified post-print analyst upgrade or target-revision cycle as of May 9, 2026; direct peers are substantially larger, which also limits the usefulness of small-cap software comparables.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-09
Q1 beat was constructive but not a clean upside reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-5.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 27.4 / Value 51.6 / Sentiment 66.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.25B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
43.15M
P/E (TTM)
64.5
P/S (TTM)
3.56
P/FCF (TTM)
27.07
Rev YoY
+11.0%
EPS YoY
-58.6%
Gross Margin
+80.8%
Op Margin
+4.5%
Net Debt
-$240.24M
Current Ratio
1.63
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data