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RDWR

RadwareD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary-source bull case is that Q1 confirmed double-digit revenue growth, 23% cloud ARR growth, strong North America execution, and healthy operating cash flow, while third-party transcript coverage framed EPS and revenue as ahead of consensus. That supports the view that Radware is gaining in cloud and API security, not only legacy appliance demand.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
EMEA revenue declined 11% year over year in Q1 2026 even as Americas revenue grew 40%.
Momentum
49
Value
51
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.50
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d -20.0
Value51 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -16.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • EMEA revenue declined 11% year over year in Q1 2026 even as Americas revenue grew 40%.
  • • Management said Israeli shekel appreciation had an adverse impact on Q1 expenses.
  • • The bear case is that the earnings release still showed weak EMEA performance, FX pressure on expenses, lower GAAP EPS from continuing operations, a SkyHawk discontinued-operations transition that complicates comparability, and no verified post-print analyst upgrade or target-revision cycle as of May 9, 2026; direct peers are substantially larger, which also limits the usefulness of small-cap software comparables.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Q1 beat was constructive but not a clean upside reset

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
49
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-20.0
Δ21d
-41.6
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.6
Δ21d
-9.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 48.8 / Value 50.9 / Sentiment 44.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.49B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
42.08M
P/E (TTM)
64.5
P/S (TTM)
3.56
P/FCF (TTM)
27.07
Rev YoY
+11.0%
EPS YoY
-58.6%
Gross Margin
+80.8%
Op Margin
+4.5%
Net Debt
-$240.24M
Current Ratio
1.63
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data