B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.03
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
RDW
RedwireBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful contract awards and mission deliveries, improving revenue visibility and multiple expansion toward peers.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.7.
What can break
High customer concentration in government contracts
Momentum
68
Value
34
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.40 · Bull $18.03 · Bear $7.01Analysis 2026-01-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.69
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -24.9
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d -5.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • High customer concentration in government contracts
- • Program delays or payload failures
- • Bear case centers on program delays, concentrated government revenue, or weaker-than-expected commercial demand that compresses multiples and guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-25
Near-term analyst revisions / earnings surprise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-24.9
Δ21d
-26.8
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
+20.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 67.6 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 83.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$12.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.01
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.35B
Beta
2.44
Shares Out
249.99M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.9
P/S (TTM)
5.72
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-23.55
Rev YoY
+89.6%
EPS YoY
-86.7%
Gross Margin
+20.1%
Op Margin
-40.6%
Net Debt
$105.65M
Current Ratio
3.92
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data