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RCUS

Arcus BiosciencesB
NYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best post-print argument is that May 5 clarified the story rather than damaging it further: cash runway extends into at least H2 2028, near-term spend should ease as domvanalimab winds down, and management laid out a concentrated sequence of 2026-2027 RCC milestones around casdatifan plus a secondary quemliclustat option. [#8-K-2026-05-05]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
After STAR-121 was stopped for futility, Arcus disclosed that the domvanalimab-based combination did not improve overall survival versus pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, raising the risk that the company has materially less late-stage diversification than it had earlier in 2026. [#8-K-2026-05-05]
Momentum
59
Value
41
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $39.27
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d +2.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +20.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • After STAR-121 was stopped for futility, Arcus disclosed that the domvanalimab-based combination did not improve overall survival versus pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, raising the risk that the company has materially less late-stage diversification than it had earlier in 2026. [#8-K-2026-05-05]
  • • Although runway remains solid, cash declined to $876 million at March 31, 2026 from $1.01 billion at December 31, 2025, and management still expects higher investment behind casdatifan and I&I programs despite near-term cost reductions. [#8-K-2026-05-05][#10-Q-2026-05-05]
  • • The bear view is that Q1 mainly confirmed reduced optionality: STAR-121 was discontinued for futility, revenue fell to $17 million from lower Gilead collaboration activity, and the company is now more dependent on one late-stage RCC platform to justify the valuation.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Q1 earnings reset preserved runway but confirmed a narrower, casdatifan-led story

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
59
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.9
Δ21d
+25.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 58.5 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 74.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.76B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
127.33M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.0
P/S (TTM)
11.14
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.43
Rev YoY
-74.4%
EPS YoY
-10.3%
Gross Margin
+92.3%
Op Margin
-415.4%
Net Debt
-$783M
Current Ratio
3.82
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data