B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
QMCO
QuantumDNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal Q1 revenue of $80.8 million beat Quantum's own $73 million–$77 million guidance range, adjusted EBITDA reached $8.0 million, and management reported record backlog [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]. The October preliminary update supports a constructive, but unconfirmed, fiscal Q2 setup [#8-K-2026-10-09].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -32.9.
What can break
Large fiscal Q1 GAAP charges and reliance on adjusted profitability complicate comparisons [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Momentum
77
Value
39
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $19.00 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.33
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -26.4
Value39 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -32.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -32.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Large fiscal Q1 GAAP charges and reliance on adjusted profitability complicate comparisons [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • October 9 guidance language was preliminary and expressly subject to completion of closing procedures and auditor review [#8-K-2026-10-09].
- • Fiscal Q1's $155.3 million GAAP loss included substantial debt-restructuring and warrant-related charges; adjusted profit does not erase reporting complexity or supply constraints [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Fiscal Q2 results versus preliminary guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-26.4
Δ21d
-26.8
Value
39
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-32.9
Δ21d
+23.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 77.5 / Value 38.5 / Sentiment 52.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-28
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$816.58M
Beta
2.66
Shares Out
39.41M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.6
P/S (TTM)
0.41
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-13.19
Rev YoY
+25.7%
EPS YoY
+277.1%
Gross Margin
+37.8%
Op Margin
-0.4%
Net Debt
$137.58M
Current Ratio
0.93
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data