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QLYS

QualysA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat against prior company guidance, raised FY2026 revenue outlook, margin expansion, FedRAMP High authorization, and management's AI-native TruRisk and QFlex commentary improve the case for durable profitable growth [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.
What can break
AI-native ROC, TruRisk, and QFlex adoption may not scale quickly enough to reaccelerate growth.
Momentum
88
Value
57
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $172.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $179.75
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -7.7
Value57 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d +3.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI-native ROC, TruRisk, and QFlex adoption may not scale quickly enough to reaccelerate growth.
  • • Market may judge 11% revenue growth insufficient for a premium rerating after the initial earnings reaction.
  • • Forward upside remains management-led: the packet does not quantify AI-native ROC or QFlex adoption, customer expansion, or backlog conversion.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 beat prior company guidance and raised FY2026 revenue outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.7
Δ21d
-11.6
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+10.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 88.1 / Value 56.6 / Sentiment 71.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$172.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.34B
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
34.6M
P/E (TTM)
25.4
P/S (TTM)
7.19
P/FCF (TTM)
17.31
Rev YoY
+11.9%
EPS YoY
+15.5%
Gross Margin
+83.6%
Op Margin
+35.0%
Net Debt
-$393.67M
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data