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QLYS

QualysD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 11%, gross and operating margins expanded, and management raised full-year revenue guidance. Continued partner execution and measurable adoption of Enterprise TruRisk Management, QFlex, and AI-native risk operations could support renewed growth without sacrificing profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
What can break
A strong preceding share-price rally and minimal upside to the supplied median target leave limited valuation protection if execution slows.
Momentum
87
Value
54
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $180.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-09-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $184.75
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +10.3
Value54 · Δ7d -1.5
Sentiment38 · Δ7d -16.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A strong preceding share-price rally and minimal upside to the supplied median target leave limited valuation protection if execution slows.
  • • Competition in cloud security and exposure management could pressure customer commitments or require higher sales and product investment.
  • • The stored third-party review characterizes ARR growth and forward revenue expectations as moderate, while the stock had already risen 83.7% over six months.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Raised 2026 revenue outlook sets the next execution test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.3
Δ21d
+3.8
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
38
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.5
Δ21d
-16.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 87.4 / Value 54.5 / Sentiment 38.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
28%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
49%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
23%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$7.73B
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
34.6M
P/E (TTM)
25.4
P/S (TTM)
7.19
P/FCF (TTM)
17.31
Rev YoY
+11.9%
EPS YoY
+15.5%
Gross Margin
+83.6%
Op Margin
+35.0%
Net Debt
-$393.67M
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data