B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
QDEL
QuidelOrthoDNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS exceeded the stored third-party estimates, while ex-China revenue grew 6%, Point of Care grew 16%, and adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 20.5%. Stabilization in China or respiratory demand, combined with cost execution, could produce meaningful upside from the depressed share price [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
A weaker-than-expected respiratory season that pressures revenue and product utilization.
Momentum
59
Value
52
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.67
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d +39.0
Value52 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -5.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A weaker-than-expected respiratory season that pressures revenue and product utilization.
- • Cost actions failing to offset lower revenue or adverse business mix.
- • The apparent Q2 beat was overshadowed by a substantial guidance reset: the revenue midpoint fell from $2.725 billion to $2.56 billion, adjusted EBITDA midpoint from $622.5 million to $550 million, adjusted EPS midpoint from $1.90 to $0.775, and free-cash-flow guidance was withdrawn.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
Third-quarter execution checkpoint
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
59
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+39.0
Δ21d
+51.6
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-38.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 59.1 / Value 52.2 / Sentiment 42.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$941.54M
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
68.58M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.8
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM)
106.34
Rev YoY
+2.5%
EPS YoY
-63.9%
Gross Margin
+37.7%
Op Margin
-1.2%
Net Debt
$2.66B
Current Ratio
1.39
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data