B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PZZA
Papa John's InternationalCNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The share-price reset leaves room for recovery if North American orders stabilize and transformation spending lifts franchise economics. International comparable sales rose 1.5% in Q2, but that strength has not offset North American weakness.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Q2 North American comparable sales fell 8.3%; management cited lower order volumes and a highly promotional market. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
10
Value
52
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $21.00 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $13.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $30.50
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d -0.6
Value52 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +5.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 North American comparable sales fell 8.3%; management cited lower order volumes and a highly promotional market. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Recent law-firm notices are not evidence that alleged claims have merit; any litigation outcome remains unverified.
- • Lower order volumes, heavy promotion, reduced EBITDA guidance, weaker free cash flow and the dividend suspension may signal a prolonged turnaround.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
November 5 results test North American sales
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+1.2
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
67
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
-1.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 10.2 / Value 52.0 / Sentiment 67.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$595.88M
Beta
1.19
Shares Out
32.92M
P/E (TTM)
5.3
P/S (TTM)
0.57
P/FCF (TTM)
71.56
Rev YoY
-8.8%
EPS YoY
-13.0%
Gross Margin
+15.7%
Op Margin
+4.7%
Net Debt
$899.42M
Current Ratio
0.83
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data