B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.67
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PRVA
Privia Health GroupANasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 showed broad operating momentum: revenue rose 21.4%, platform contribution rose 20.1%, adjusted EBITDA rose 29.1%, and management raised FY2026 guidance. Provider and attributed-lives growth provide identifiable drivers rather than a purely valuation-led thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.2.
What can break
Failure to deliver the raised FY2026 guidance would weaken the principal near-term catalyst [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
10
Value
55
Sentiment
87
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.50 · Bull $31.67 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-09-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-17
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-17
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-17. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.67
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +3.0
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment87 · Δ7d -9.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Failure to deliver the raised FY2026 guidance would weaken the principal near-term catalyst [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Gross profit grew 14.3% in Q2 versus 21.4% revenue growth, highlighting a potential mix or conversion risk despite stronger adjusted EBITDA [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Revenue growth is outpacing gross-profit growth, making margin conversion an important monitoring point.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Execution against raised FY2026 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.0
Δ21d
+5.7
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
87
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
-4.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 10.4 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 86.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.75B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
127.73M
P/E (TTM)
169.9
P/S (TTM)
1.45
P/FCF (TTM)
26.82
Rev YoY
+21.4%
EPS YoY
+228.2%
Gross Margin
+9.5%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
-$470.15M
Current Ratio
1.62
As of 2026-09-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data