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PROV

Provident FinancialC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings setup is modestly constructive: NIM expanded, credit quality remained strong, deposits grew 2% year over year, and management cited capital strength and a favorable rate environment. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Loan balances declined year over year, with repayments exceeding originations.
Momentum
45
Value
48
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.50
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Loan balances declined year over year, with repayments exceeding originations.
  • • Low analyst coverage and no verified post-earnings target or estimate revisions.
  • • Forward visibility remains limited because loan balances declined, earnings benefited from a credit-loss recovery and investment gains, and no post-print analyst revisions, target changes, or consensus surprise data are available.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Positive FY2026 earnings reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 45.2 / Value 48.2 / Sentiment 58.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$112.25M
Beta
0.31
Shares Out
6.25M
P/E (TTM)
17.9
P/S (TTM)
2.66
P/FCF (TTM)
23.25
Rev YoY
+1.6%
EPS YoY
+41.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+16.1%
Net Debt
$107.84M
Current Ratio
0.24
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data