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PRGS

Progress SoftwareA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 delivered 7% revenue growth, 2% ARR growth, 40% non-GAAP operating margin, and 16% non-GAAP EPS growth. Management cited broad-based AI-powered demand, raised guidance, and is pursuing a potentially complementary Domo acquisition.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.9.
What can break
ARR growth was 2% year over year and net retention was 100%, limiting evidence of a strong recurring-revenue acceleration [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30].
Momentum
77
Value
69
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $45.00 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.50
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -2.8
Value69 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -5.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ARR growth was 2% year over year and net retention was 100%, limiting evidence of a strong recurring-revenue acceleration [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30].
  • • Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, and reliable post-announcement market-reaction data are unavailable.
  • • ARR growth remains modest at 2% with 100% net retention, while the Domo transaction introduces closing, financing, integration, and execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Q3 results and guidance confirmation

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-13.9
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.9
Δ21d
-2.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 77.3 / Value 68.6 / Sentiment 73.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.76B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
41.01M
P/E (TTM)
37.0
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM)
9.81
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
+29.1%
Gross Margin
+71.4%
Op Margin
+18.5%
Net Debt
$1.34B
Current Ratio
0.81
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data