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PRGS

Progress SoftwareD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Non-GAAP EPS and adjusted free cash flow rose year over year despite lower revenue, and the Domo acquisition could broaden the platform. Progress reported 43% Q3 non-GAAP operating margin and $87.2 million adjusted free cash flow.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Domo integration and customer-retention outcomes remain unproven; the acquisition may increase financing and execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Momentum
40
Value
68
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $47.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $56.20
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +34.0
Value68 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -11.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Domo integration and customer-retention outcomes remain unproven; the acquisition may increase financing and execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
  • • FY2026 non-GAAP operating-margin guidance declined from 39% to 38%; acquisition-related revenue growth may not translate into comparable margin growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-30]
  • • Revenue declined 2%, ARR grew only 1% in constant currency, and the higher FY2026 revenue guide follows an acquisition while non-GAAP margin guidance declined.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-09

Fiscal Q3 earnings reassessment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+34.0
Δ21d
+30.6
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
33
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.7
Δ21d
-29.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 40.2 / Value 68.0 / Sentiment 33.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.9B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
40.87M
P/E (TTM)
37.0
P/S (TTM)
1.86
P/FCF (TTM)
9.81
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
+29.1%
Gross Margin
+71.4%
Op Margin
+18.5%
Net Debt
$1.34B
Current Ratio
0.81
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data