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PRG

PROGA
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 22.3% to $719.7 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $88.4 million. Management lifted 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.75–5.00 from $4.40–4.80, while leverage fell to about 1.7x.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Peer fit is loose, and current analyst revisions, options, short-interest, and social-sentiment data are unavailable.
Momentum
17
Value
61
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $52.00
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d +3.9
Value61 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Peer fit is loose, and current analyst revisions, options, short-interest, and social-sentiment data are unavailable.
  • • Progressive Leasing's Q2 revenue and pretax earnings declined despite higher GMV; lease-merchandise write-offs were 8.4% of leasing revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Progressive Leasing revenue declined 3.4% despite positive GMV growth, and its earnings before taxes fell 11.9%.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Q3 results test raised outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
17
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+5.0
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 17.3 / Value 60.7 / Sentiment 70.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.18B
Beta
1.73
Shares Out
39.83M
P/E (TTM)
7.6
P/S (TTM)
0.47
P/FCF (TTM)
4.29
Rev YoY
+22.3%
EPS YoY
-4.2%
Gross Margin
+35.6%
Op Margin
+8.5%
Net Debt
$293.35M
Current Ratio
7.48
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data