B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PRCH
Porch GroupCNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print strengthens the positive thesis: insurance-led growth, 150% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth, positive net income, and a second consecutive guidance increase provide primary-source evidence of operating leverage and improving profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.4.
What can break
RWP per policy declined 16% year over year, indicating pricing or mix pressure.
Momentum
93
Value
38
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.50 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.50
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -2.7
Value38 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +10.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • RWP per policy declined 16% year over year, indicating pricing or mix pressure.
- • Recent open-market sales by senior executives are a sentiment overhang but do not provide evidence about operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-07] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-21].
- • RWP per policy declined 16%, Software & Data company counts fell 22%, and stored secondary earnings context flagged competitive pricing pressure plus a nonrecurring expense benefit.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-29
Q2 beat and broad 2026 guidance raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-3.2
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.4
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 92.6 / Value 37.9 / Sentiment 65.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.9B
Beta
3.06
Shares Out
113.52M
P/E (TTM)
32.1
P/S (TTM)
2.66
P/FCF (TTM)
49.28
Rev YoY
+11.7%
EPS YoY
+136.7%
Gross Margin
+62.3%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$205.32M
Current Ratio
1.45
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data