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POWL

Powell IndustriesC
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A $2.4 billion backlog, 3.0x Q3 book-to-bill and $634 million of cash and short-term investments support operating visibility and balance-sheet flexibility [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]. Upside depends on converting large awards while sustaining margins.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
Backlog may be cancelled, reduced or recognized later than expected [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Momentum
24
Value
55
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $160.00 · Bull $185.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $278.00
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -18.0
Value55 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -17.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog may be cancelled, reduced or recognized later than expected [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
  • • Large engineered projects and the Jacintoport capacity ramp create execution and margin risk [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
  • • Backlog is not guaranteed revenue: project delays, scope changes, cancellations or a costly capacity ramp could weaken results.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Conversion of record orders into revenue

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.0
Δ21d
-18.9
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+2.2
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.5
Δ21d
-3.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 23.8 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 54.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$5.72B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
36.43M
P/E (TTM)
24.3
P/S (TTM)
3.96
P/FCF (TTM)
30.79
Rev YoY
+8.9%
EPS YoY
+7.9%
Gross Margin
+30.0%
Op Margin
+19.8%
Net Debt
-$473.86M
Current Ratio
1.97
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data