B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
PM
Philip Morris InternationalCNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Execution accelerates for smoke‑free products, FX and pricing offset volume pressures, buybacks/support sustain EPS; market rewards premium multiple.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Accelerated combustible volume declines (slower IQOS uptake)
Momentum
64
Value
47
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $181.36 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $158.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $208.77
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +16.7
Value47 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Accelerated combustible volume declines (slower IQOS uptake)
- • Emerging‑market FX and macro shocks
- • Regulatory tightening or faster-than-expected combustible volume declines compress EBITDA and reduce cash flow; emerging-market FX shocks amplify downside.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-09
Regulatory/market update in key jurisdictions
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.7
Δ21d
+5.0
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.9 / Value 47.4 / Sentiment 56.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$181.36
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$158.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$287.6B
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
1.56B
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
6.22
P/FCF (TTM)
147.42
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
-7.4%
Gross Margin
+65.3%
Op Margin
+37.3%
Net Debt
$44.47B
Current Ratio
0.98
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data