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PM

Philip Morris InternationalD
NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Execution accelerates for smoke‑free products, FX and pricing offset volume pressures, buybacks/support sustain EPS; market rewards premium multiple.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Accelerated combustible volume declines (slower IQOS uptake)
Momentum
83
Value
46
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $181.36 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $158.00Analysis 2026-02-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $213.80
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -1.0
Value46 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +1.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Accelerated combustible volume declines (slower IQOS uptake)
  • • Emerging‑market FX and macro shocks
  • • Regulatory tightening or faster-than-expected combustible volume declines compress EBITDA and reduce cash flow; emerging-market FX shocks amplify downside.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-09

Regulatory/market update in key jurisdictions

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-14.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 83.1 / Value 46.2 / Sentiment 44.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$181.36
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$158.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$314.65B
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
1.56B
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
6.22
P/FCF (TTM)
147.42
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
-7.4%
Gross Margin
+65.3%
Op Margin
+37.3%
Net Debt
$44.47B
Current Ratio
0.98
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data