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PLNT

Planet FitnessD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that the Q1 print still showed healthy revenue, EBITDA and equipment strength, total membership reached about 21.5 million, liquidity was solid at $652.0 million, and the company kept its club-opening pipeline intact; if the pricing review and sharper marketing restore joins, the reset could mark a trough rather than a broken model.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.
What can break
Competition in the fitness industry and the ability to attract and retain members remain core risks, along with franchisee site development and access to capital [#10-K-2026-02-25].
Momentum
16
Value
60
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $46.00 · Bull $54.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $66.31
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +1.8
Value60 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Competition in the fitness industry and the ability to attract and retain members remain core risks, along with franchisee site development and access to capital [#10-K-2026-02-25].
  • • Membership growth slowed during the seasonally important peak sign-up period, and management explicitly reset 2026 expectations lower [#8-K-2026-05-07].
  • • The bear case is that the most important KPI turned out worse than expected: net member growth in the peak sign-up period.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 beat was overshadowed by a sharp 2026 guidance reset and Black Card price-hike pause

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+3.6
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+7.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 16.0 / Value 60.1 / Sentiment 52.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.82B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
75.22M
P/E (TTM)
43.1
P/S (TTM)
6.81
P/FCF (TTM)
43.28
Rev YoY
+7.1%
EPS YoY
+26.0%
Gross Margin
+39.3%
Op Margin
+30.9%
Net Debt
$2.43B
Current Ratio
1.56
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data