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PLMR

PalomarF
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Rate adequacy and controlled loss development generate reserve releases and ROE expansion; capital returns (buybacks/dividends) and multiple re‑rating drive upside.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Capital treatment (buybacks/dividends)
Momentum
48
Value
52
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $46.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2025-09-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-09-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $163.17
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +3.2
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment25 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital treatment (buybacks/dividends)
  • • Reserve deterioration
  • • Adverse reserve development or prolonged commercial pricing weakness compresses combined ratios, weakens ROE and may force capital actions that depress the stock.

Catalyst clock

2025-11-06

Q3 2025 Earnings Release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.2
Δ21d
+9.5
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-7.5
Sentiment
25
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 47.9 / Value 51.8 / Sentiment 25.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-09-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.26B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
26.32M
P/E (TTM)
21.2
P/S (TTM)
4.69
P/FCF (TTM)
12.17
Rev YoY
+54.7%
EPS YoY
+15.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+24.9%
Net Debt
-$99.8M
Current Ratio
1.20
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data