B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PLBY
PlayboyANasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 materially strengthened the operating narrative: double-digit revenue growth, sharply higher adjusted EBITDA, positive operating income, near break-even net income, positive operating cash flow, contracted licensing visibility, and continued Honey Birdette growth [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Leverage and deleveraging remain execution-sensitive, including timing of remaining UTG proceeds.
Momentum
91
Value
42
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.50 · Bull $2.40 · Bear $0.70Analysis 2026-09-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.75
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -
Value42 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Leverage and deleveraging remain execution-sensitive, including timing of remaining UTG proceeds.
- • Low analyst coverage, absent social coverage, and unavailable post-print estimate or target revisions reduce forward visibility.
- • The thesis remains execution-sensitive because the company is small, analyst coverage is unavailable, insider/10% owner selling was reported at $1.05, and future value depends on sustaining brand momentum, completing capital-allocation actions, and converting licensing visibility into cash flow [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-25].
Catalyst clock
2026-12-04
Share repurchase and deleveraging execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+7.1
Sentiment
100
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 90.9 / Value 41.9 / Sentiment 100.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$0.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$141.37M
Beta
2.68
Shares Out
119.81M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-9.3
P/S (TTM)
1.14
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
122.92
Rev YoY
+10.9%
EPS YoY
-102.1%
Gross Margin
+72.7%
Op Margin
+4.8%
Net Debt
$158.44M
Current Ratio
0.79
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data