B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PGY
PagayaANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record profitability, network-volume growth, Auto expansion, stronger ABS funding demand, and positive Fitch outlook support continued operating leverage and a possible valuation re-rating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.7.
What can break
FRLPC margin contracted by 61 basis points year over year to 4.2% because of asset mix, new partner and product contributions, tighter ABS pricing, and higher cost of capital. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
90
Value
69
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $29.50 · Bear $15.50Analysis 2026-09-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.25
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +2.9
Value69 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FRLPC margin contracted by 61 basis points year over year to 4.2% because of asset mix, new partner and product contributions, tighter ABS pricing, and higher cost of capital. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • Forward results depend on continued ABS funding access, prudent underwriting, and sustained credit performance.
- • The business remains exposed to funding conditions, asset-class mix, pricing pressure, and credit-cycle or execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 beat and raised FY26 net-income guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
90
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
-0.5
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
-18.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 89.7 / Value 69.4 / Sentiment 72.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.75B
Beta
5.88
Shares Out
83.43M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
21.2
P/S (TTM)
1.57
P/FCF (TTM)
10.53
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
+147.9%
Gross Margin
+39.8%
Op Margin
+22.9%
Net Debt
$600.24M
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data