B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PGY
PagayaBNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 network volume, revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded Pagaya's prior outlook; further volume growth and diversified funding could sustain operating leverage. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Consumer-credit conditions and underwriting outcomes could affect partner volume, investor demand and profitability.
Momentum
21
Value
70
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.80 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $12.50Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.17
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d -1.1
Value70 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -13.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer-credit conditions and underwriting outcomes could affect partner volume, investor demand and profitability.
- • Fees less production costs fell 61 basis points year over year to 4.2% of network volume in Q2, partly reflecting asset mix and tighter ABS pricing amid higher capital costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • Q2 fees less production costs declined as a share of volume.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
October 29 results test volume growth against fee compression
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
-15.5
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.7
Δ21d
-29.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 20.6 / Value 69.8 / Sentiment 54.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$18.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.58B
Beta
5.88
Shares Out
83.43M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
19.1
P/S (TTM)
1.57
P/FCF (TTM)
10.53
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
+147.9%
Gross Margin
+39.8%
Op Margin
+22.9%
Net Debt
$600.24M
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data