B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PGY
PagayaANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 produced record $387 million revenue and other income, $124 million adjusted EBITDA, $3.5 billion network volume, and $45 million GAAP net income. Network volume exceeded the company's stated Q2 outlook, and operating leverage plus Auto expansion could support further earnings growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.4.
What can break
Consumer-credit deterioration could increase investor risk aversion and test the company's prudent-underwriting claims.
Momentum
92
Value
69
Sentiment
90
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.25
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +2.2
Value69 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment90 · Δ7d +13.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer-credit deterioration could increase investor risk aversion and test the company's prudent-underwriting claims.
- • FRLPC margin compression could persist if funding costs remain elevated or asset mix shifts toward lower-yielding volumes.
- • FRLPC as a percentage of network volume contracted 61 basis points year over year because of asset mix, new-partner and product contributions, and tighter ABS pricing amid higher capital costs.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-10
Q3 outlook execution test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
90
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.4
Δ21d
-9.5
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 92.4 / Value 69.4 / Sentiment 90.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.75B
Beta
5.88
Shares Out
83.43M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
21.2
P/S (TTM)
1.57
P/FCF (TTM)
10.53
Rev YoY
+15.1%
EPS YoY
+147.9%
Gross Margin
+39.8%
Op Margin
+22.9%
Net Debt
$600.24M
Current Ratio
1.47
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data