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PFSI

PennyMac Financial ServicesC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Servicing growth, better recapture and successful Cenlar onboarding could help offset production weakness. PFSI reported a $488 billion owned servicing portfolio and improved recapture rates in the second quarter; the September update put the owned portfolio at $503 billion.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Cenlar onboarding and cost realignment may take longer or yield less operating leverage than management expects. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
16
Value
62
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $75.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $82.29
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +3.6
Value62 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -4.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cenlar onboarding and cost realignment may take longer or yield less operating leverage than management expects. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Higher mortgage rates and lower pull-through-adjusted lock volume may pressure production profit beyond management's September expectation. [#8-K-2026-09-14]
  • • Second-quarter GAAP EPS was $0.41 versus $2.54 a year earlier, and management said results fell short of expectations.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Servicing offset to weaker production

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
16
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+4.5
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 16.3 / Value 61.9 / Sentiment 49.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.31B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
51.95M
P/E (TTM)
14.5
P/S (TTM)
2.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.45
Rev YoY
+0.4%
EPS YoY
-84.0%
Gross Margin
+86.7%
Op Margin
+30.1%
Net Debt
$15.01B
Current Ratio
0.09
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data