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PFSI

PennyMac Financial ServicesB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
At $75.41, PFSI trades below its reported June 30 book value per share of $83.49. Improving recapture rates, Cenlar onboarding, automation, and cost savings could support a recovery toward the available median analyst target of $90.57, although the target count is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
Cenlar transaction closing and integration remain execution-dependent.
Momentum
11
Value
62
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $65.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.57
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d +1.2
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cenlar transaction closing and integration remain execution-dependent.
  • • Higher interest rates may continue to reduce mortgage origination and refinance demand.
  • • The earnings print showed a sharp sequential decline in production profitability, a 7% adjusted ROE, and management guidance for high-single-digit adjusted ROE through 2026.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-03

Q2 earnings miss with subdued 2026 ROE outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-1.8
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-8.0
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+8.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 11.0 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 75.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.96B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
51.95M
P/E (TTM)
14.5
P/S (TTM)
2.40
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.94
Rev YoY
+0.4%
EPS YoY
-84.0%
Gross Margin
+86.7%
Op Margin
+30.1%
Net Debt
$15.01B
Current Ratio
0.09
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data