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PFS

Provident Financial ServicesB
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Provident could re-rate toward the top of the analyst range if NIMs remain resilient, loan growth accelerates modestly, and deposit costs stabilize — supporting upside to the $24 analyst high. Operational discipline and stable credit trends would validate a premium to the current market price.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Deposit outflows or rising funding costs
Momentum
47
Value
62
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.75
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +5.4
Value62 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -4.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit outflows or rising funding costs
  • • Localized credit deterioration in commercial/CRE portfolios
  • • Adverse deposit outflows or unexpected credit deterioration would pressure EPS and warrant a multiple contraction, pushing the stock below current levels; a prolonged margin squeeze could drive valuation toward the low-to-bear target range.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Analyst consensus re-rate / 12-month target refresh

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+7.1
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-9.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 46.7 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 51.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.03B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
130.42M
P/E (TTM)
10.3
P/S (TTM)
3.09
P/FCF (TTM)
5.48
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
+8.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+30.5%
Net Debt
$2.37B
Current Ratio
0.02
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data