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PFS

Provident Financial ServicesC
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Provident could re-rate toward the top of the analyst range if NIMs remain resilient, loan growth accelerates modestly, and deposit costs stabilize — supporting upside to the $24 analyst high. Operational discipline and stable credit trends would validate a premium to the current market price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
What can break
Deposit outflows or rising funding costs
Momentum
40
Value
62
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.58
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -3.5
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit outflows or rising funding costs
  • • Localized credit deterioration in commercial/CRE portfolios
  • • Adverse deposit outflows or unexpected credit deterioration would pressure EPS and warrant a multiple contraction, pushing the stock below current levels; a prolonged margin squeeze could drive valuation toward the low-to-bear target range.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

Analyst consensus re-rate / 12-month target refresh

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-18.5
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.5
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+7.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 40.5 / Value 61.9 / Sentiment 58.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.2B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
130.42M
P/E (TTM)
10.3
P/S (TTM)
3.09
P/FCF (TTM)
5.48
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
+8.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+30.5%
Net Debt
$2.37B
Current Ratio
0.02
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data